Department of Economics

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Strategic directions for developing an islamic banking system
(The Pakistan Development Review, 2005) Suleman Aziz Lodhi; Rukhsana Kalim
Not available
Measuring the peace dividend: evidence from developing economies
(Routledge, 2006) Rabia Aslam
The paper attempts to trace the nexus between defense spending and economic growth in developing countries, using data for 59 developing countries from 1972–2000. The purpose is to measure the opportunity costs of defense spending mainly in terms of alternative public programs. The correlation of social sector expenditures with growth rate as well as the extent of correlation between social and defense sector spending is not clear in the majority of developing countries. It follows that even if defense spending is reduced, the prospects for a peace dividend in the aftermath of the Cold War might be inhibited by political interests that oppose increases in social sector expenditures. If so, defense cutbacks might not lead to a welfare windfall as is generally presumed. Accordingly, this paper tests whether a defense spending cutback will enhance funding for other public programs and whether such a reallocation of resources will prove to be beneficial for the long-term growth rate of the economy.
Quantification of social economic deprivations of squatter settlement's inhabitants: a case study of Lahore
(2006) Rukhsana Kalim; Sheraz Ahmad Bhatty
In Pakistan the gravity of the issue of urbanization is as severe as in any other country of third world. The growth rate of urban population is rising day by bay and decade by decade. For example the share of urban population had reached at 32.5 percent (of total population) in1998 as compared to the 28.3 percent in 1981 and 17.8 percent in 1951. At the same time the growth of the existing population also requires more housing facilities. With little financial resources, the drastic option of illegally occupying a vacant piece of land to build a rudimentary shelter is the only choice available to the people who choose to live in big cities. This phenomenon causes the emergence of squatter settlement (Katchi Abadis). Socio-economic conditions of the inhabitants of these squatter settlements are quite different from those of normal settlements. Keeping in view the existing literature, still there is a need to conduct an in-depth study on the socio economic deprivations of residents of squatter settlements (Katchi Abadis). In the present study an effort has been made to quantify the socio economic issues. For this purpose Socio Economic Opportunity Index (SEOI) is established to evaluate the level of deprivation of inhabitants of squatter settlements. The Index is made by redefining and reconstructing the variables used in the Poverty of Opportunity Index (POPI) presented in Human Development in South Asia Report, 1998. In SEOI four important variables; income, health, education and housing are taken into account. Lahore, being the mega city of 5 million population size and having 227 squatter settlements (Katchi Abadis) in it, is targeted for the study purpose. Primary data is collected from 240 households in 11 squatter settlements (Katchi Abadis) via developing a questionnaire. Stratified random sampling technique is used to determine the sample squatter settlement (Katchi Abadis) and representative households. To see the total effect of various deprivations, Atkinson formula is used. The results of Socio Economic Opportunity Index (SEOI) show that 65.6% population of the squatter settlement is deprived of basic social and economic opportunities thus necessitating the support of the government to these inhabitants.
Remittances and poverty nexus: evidence from Pakistan
(International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2009) Rukhsana Kalim; Muhammad Shahbaz
Remittances play a very important role in eliminating poverty of a nation. Remittances it is believed increase the money supply and stimulate demand for consumption and investment. The basic objective of the present paper is to explore the various factors affecting poverty with particular emphasis on the relationship between poverty and foreign remittances. It is hypothesized that remittances, trade openness, GDP growth, inflation, urbanization and tax rates are the possible variables affecting poverty. The remittances-poverty nexus is tested both for the short-run as well as for the long-run. Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOL) technique is used for establishing short-run and long-run relationship between poverty and its determinants. The period selected is from 1973-2006. Results support hypothesis that remittances bring a decline in poverty.
Is inflation regressive or progressive? Long run & short run evidence from Pakistan
(International Journal of Management Studies, 2010) Muhammad Shahbaz; Abu N. M. Wahid; Rukhsana Kalim
The present paper investigates an answer to a key question “is inflation regressive or progressive?” by utilizing time series data from 1971 up to 2005 with reference to Pakistan. The main focus of the study is on the infl ationinequality puzzle but other control variables are also included in the model that aff ect income distribution. We have utilized the most advanced technique FMOLS (Fully-Modifi ed Ordinary Least Square) for long run and ECM (Error Correction Model) for short run dynamics. Our fi ndings suggest that infl ation is progressive in the case of Pakistan but with low magnitude. There is also a prevalence of a U-shaped relationship between infl ation and income inequality in non-linear or non-monotonic phenomenon, but it is insignifi cant. Per capita income deteriorates income distribution, and seems to provide gains to non-poor individuals in the economy. Remitt ances as share of GDP, and human capital, also appear to increase income inequality in both periods but large size of the government seems to worsen income distribution in the long run. International trade and income inequality are positively correlated that confi rms the existence of Leontief paradox in Pakistan not only in short run, but also in long run. Financial development declines income inequality insignifi cantly. Inverted U-shaped curve (Lafer-Curve) indicates an association of trade and income inequality in non-linear fashion insignifi cantly. This eff ort provides some new insights for policy makers and development planners in Pakistan.
Trade led growth hypothesis: an empirical investigation from Pakistan
(2010) Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Muhammad Wasif Siddiqi
The correlation between international trade and economic growth in least developed countries like Pakistan has been a great debated from both theoretical and empirical point of views. The study aims at finding correlation between international trade and economic growth in Pakistan by employing fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) technique for the long run estimates and error correction mechanism (ECM) for the short run estimates for the data of 1973 2007. The study concludes that international trade significantly increases economic growth in the long run and reducing economic growth in the short run hence indicating the fact that international trade is a long run phenomenon and trade-led-growth hypothesis works in Pakistan.
Micro financing of NGOS and government: collaborative impact on poverty eradication
(Information Management and Business Review, 2011) Rukhsana Kalim; Taseer Salahuddin
Poverty reduction has been declared as the most important millennium development goal not only by the world level organizations and institutions, but also by the government of Pakistan. Micro-credit is considered as a prime tool to fight back poverty. After the success of Grameen Bank of Bangladesh multiple other banks and micro finance institutions (MFI’s) like Banko Soladerio of Latin America, Indonesia’s BRI-UD, BAAC in Thailand, BRAC in Bangladesh and VBSP in Vietnam have been working on almost the similar pattern. In Pakistan different NGOs like AKRSP, Orangi pilot project, Kashf foundation and others have started working for the past few years basically to eradicate poverty and for women empowerment. The government institutions are also seriously making an effort to eradicate poverty through micro financing schemes. Government of Pakistan has selected the RSP (rural support program) model for micro-financing. The success of both government institutions and NGOs is not very outstanding to meet the basic objective of poverty eradication. The aim of this paper is to see the possibility of collaboration between the NGOs and the government to achieve the desired common goal. It is hypothesized that if government and NGOs work together and collaborate each other, the effectiveness of micro financing schemes could be strengthened.
Determinants of food price inflation in Pakistan
(2011) Muhammad Abdullah; Rukhsana Kalim
This study focuses on the identification of main determinants of food price inflation in Pakistan. Using the data from 1972 to 2008, Johansen’s co- integration technique isutilized to find out the long run relationships among food price inflation and its determinants like inflation expectations, money supply, per capita GDP, support prices, food imports and food exports. Empirical findings prove the long run relationships among food price inflation and its determinants. All the determinants affect food price inflation positively and significantly except money supply which is insignificant with correct positive sign. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been used for the analysis of short run dynamics. In the short run, only inflation expectations, support prices and food exports affect the food price inflation. The results reveal that both demand and supply side factors are the determinants food price inflation in Pakistan. However, our study supports the structuralist point of view of inflation as money supply shows insignificant results.
Empirical analysis of food price inflation in Pakistan
(2012) Muhammad Abdullah; Rukhsana Kalim
This study focuses on the identification of main determinants of food price inflation in Pakistan. Using the data from 1972 to 2008, Johansen’s co-integration technique is utilized to find out the long run relationships among food price inflation and its determinants like inflation expectations, money supply, per capita GDP, support prices, food imports and food exports. Empirical findings prove the long run relationships among food price inflation and its determinants. All the determinants affect food price inflation positively and significantly except money supply which is insignificant with correct positive sign. In the short run, only inflation expectations, support prices and food exports affect the food price inflation. The results reveal that both demand and supply side factors are the determinants food price inflation in Pakistan. However, our study supports the structulists’ point of view of inflation as money supply shows insignificant results.
Do schooling years improve the earning capacity of lower income groups?
(Inderscience Publishers, 2012) Dawood Mamoon
The paper analyses the relationship between the popular Barro and Lee (2001) 'average years of schooling' with income inequality, wage inequality, and income deciles and income percentiles for the sample of developed and developing countries. The results suggest that countries where students complete higher numbers of years of schooling on average also perform better on relative incomes meaning that increase in average income comes from improvements in the earning capacity of the lower income groups or unskilled labour. The paper also finds that an educated population means that there is redistribution of income from the rich to the poor creating thriving middle class.
The triangular causality among education, health and economic growth: a time series analysis of Pakistan
(IDOSI Publications, 2012) Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Rukhsana Kalim
The study scrutinizes the existence of long run association and triangular causality among real GDP per capita, per capita education expenditures and per capita health expenditures in Pakistan. The present study applies Ng - Perron test to investigate stationarity, ARDL bounds testing approach to examine the existence of long run relationship and Granger Causality test for estimating short run, long run and combined short run and long run triangular causality among the variables for the time series data of Pakistan from 1972 - 2009. The present study exposes that there exists long run relationship among real GDP per capita, per capita education expenditures and per capita health expenditures in Pakistan. There exists bidirectional relationship between per capita real GDP and per capita education expenditures in the short run, whereas per capita health expenditures and real GDP per capita do not granger cause each other in short run in Pakistan. Also, there exits bidirectional granger causality among real GDP per capita, per capita education expenditures and per capita health expenditures in long run in Pakistan. The present study also confirms the existence of joint causality among real GDP per capita, per capita education expenditures and per capita health expenditures in both short run and long run in Pakistan.
Does growth led inflation hypothesis & locus critique exist in Pakistan? A time series study
(IDOSI Publications, 2012) Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Iftikhar Ahmad; Haider Mahmood
The impact of economic growth......................... unemployment and money supply in Pakistan.
The role of key macroeconomic variables in fiscal deficit of Pakistan: an empirical analysis
(2012) Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Rukhsana Kalim
The present study aims to explore some of the important factors contributing to the fiscal deficit in Pakistan. GDP per capita, total debt servicing as percentage of GDP, volume of trade as share of GDP, and monetary asset (proxy for money supply) as share of GDP are considered major factors affecting fiscal deficit in Pakistan. The period taken for analysis ranges from 1976 to 2009. The study applies ADF and Phillip Perron tests to investigate stationarity; Johansen Maximum Likelihood technique to explore the existence of long run relationship among the running actors of the study, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square Method to estimate the long run coefficients., Error Correction Mechanism to inspect the short run coefficients and finally, Granger Causality test to investigate the direction of causality among the operating variables of the present study for Pakistan. The empirical evidence shows that GDP per capita and money supply are significantly squeezing fiscal deficit in Pakistan in both the short run and long run span of time. The total debt servicing lagged by one year declines fiscal deficit in the long run. However, volume of trade; total debt servicing and time trend are positively and significantly contributing to the fiscal deficit in Pakistan in the both long run and short run time span. Moreover; the empirical findings report that there exists univariate Granger causality from fiscal deficit to GDP per capita, from fiscal deficit to money supply, from volume of trade to.GDP per capita, and from money supply to GDP per capita. Finally, the present study diagnoses the existence of bivariate Granger causality between volume of trade and fiscal deficit in Pakistan.
Urbanization as a way to open economy: empirical evidence from Pakistan
(IDOSI Publications, 2012) Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Ayesha Wajid; Khalil Ahmed
Urbanization expands the size of people in the cities, ............... and long term direction of causality between urbanization and trade openness for the period from 1975-2010.
Exploring the dark side of knowledge management (km) tactics: a study from Pakistan
(3rd International Conference on Business Management (ICoBM), UMT, Lahore, Pakistan, 2013) Ali Asghar
The field of knowledge management is being approached from variety of levels in which the dark side of knowledge management is almost neglected area, particularly in the context of Pakistan. This study, however, provides a fresh inquiry never taken before. Evidences are provided from all walks of life: social, economic, political, government, media, as well as corporate. Utilizing the authentic print media reports along with the model of tactics on dark side of knowledge management given by Alter (2006), this paper focuses upon the distortion, suppression, and misappropriation of knowledge during creating, acquisition, refining, storing, retrieving, distributing, and presenting knowledge. Content analysis of these reports has been administered to present the dark side of knowledge management tactics within Pakistani context in systematic and logical progression. This study also provides insights for those optimistic knowledge managers and scholars who are ever used to looking at the bright side of knowledge management and ignore the dark sides at the cost of bright sides. Through this study, one can take a contrast while looking at the gloomy and dark side of KM when he confronted with the stark realities of KM facets.
Social capital and knowledge sharing as determinants of academic performance
(3rd International Conference on Business Management (ICoBM), UMT, Lahore, Pakistan, 2013) Haris Aslam; Khuram Shahzad; Aly Raza Syed; Asher Ramish
Aslam, H. (2013)."SOCIAL CAPITAL AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING AS DETERMINANTS OF ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE." Paper presented at 3rd International Conference on Business Management (ICoBM), UMT, Lahore, Pakistan.
Organizational analysis
(3rd International Conference on Business Management (ICoBM), UMT, Lahore, Pakistan, 2013) Umer Ayub; Mubashar Majeed; Hasan Sohaib Murad
The purpose of this article is to analyze a real world organization in the light of theoretical framework developed by Lee & Terrence (2003). Recently organizations have become pervasive and dominant and look like puzzling terrain because they lend themselves to multiple conflicting interpretations, all of which are plausible and create confusion. Rich qualitative information that has the ability to change understanding within a time interval can reduce this confusion. Rich information can clarify ambiguous issues with short timeframe to enhance understanding and cover diverse perspectives. These perspectives become formidably difficult to understand and manage due to increase complexities, surprises, deceptiveness and ambiguities. Organizations have changed about as much in the past decade or two as in the previous century. To survive, they had to. Revolutionary changes in technology, the rise of the global economy, and shortened product life cycles have spawned a flurry of activity to design more fluid more flexible organizational forms (Lee & Terrence, 2003). Managers, consultants, and policy makers inspired by a variety of theories put forward by researchers in an effort to change or improve organizations. In the social sciences, several major schools of thoughts have evolved and each has its own concepts and assumptions and espouses a view of how to bring social collectives under control.
Human resource outsourcing
(3rd International Conference, 2013) Sarwar Azhar; Iram Shehzadi
Outsourcing has gained a great imputes during the last some years. There are many reasons to outsource the goods and services. The concept of Human Resource Outsourcing facilitates a firm to rivet its attention to core business. It is also used to minimize the complexities to cope with human resource activities more precisely. In Pakistan, the concept of Human Resource outsourcing is in its inception stage as it is not very much in practice. Organizations are outsourcing Human Resource but only the activities and functions, which are very much essential to performed. Most of the organizations are unaware from the factual essence of this idea that it is very cost productive and helps to gain competitive advantage. Keeping these drawbacks, this study is carried out to discover the reasons of HR Outsourcing in the Pakistani business scenario.
The impact of inflation and economic growth on unemployment
(3rd International Conference UMT, Lahore, 2013) Ayesha Wajid; Rukhsana Kalim
This study is conducted to explore the impact of inflation and economic growth along with trade openness and urban population on unemployment for a case of Pakistan for the period from 1973 – 2010. This study uses Augmented Dickey Fuller (1981) Test to test unit root problem and in order to find out the long run relationship among unemployment; inflation, economic growth, trade openness and urban population as share of total population, we have applied Johansen – Juselius (1990) Maximum Likelihood Approach. This study concludes that inflation significantly increases unemployment in the long term; economic growth has a significant adverse impact on unemployment in the long run and in the short run respectively, and the impact of trade openness on unemployment is positively and insignificant in the long run but this impact becomes significant in the short run. Finally, the findings of the study sheds light on the impact of urban population as share of total population on unemployment for both long run and short run, and it has found that urban population as share of total population has an adverse impact on unemployment in the long run as well as in the short run.
Impact of business education and family background on entrepreneurial potential
(3rd International Conference UMT, Lahore, 2013) Muhammad Imran Haider
The present study is conducted to investigate the entrepreneurship potential among students from various universities of Pakistan, and also to unveil the fact if educational qualification and family background have any significant impact upon such potential of students. The reason for conducting this study is that entrepreneurship is the key factor in making a country progressive and competitive in the present world’s complex global business environment. An endeavor also have been made in this research to point out to the academicians and other stakeholders of educational sector of Pakistan whether or not the present educational system has any significant impact on grooming and developing entrepreneurship potential among the university graduates who are getting business and commerce related education.

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