Impact of climate changes on Hydroligic modeling of Haro River
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Date
2025
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
UMT. Lahore
Abstract
This study addresses the long-term variation of main meteorological parameters, namely
inflows, temperature, and precipitation in the Haro River watershed, which is the catchment
falling upstream of the Khanpur Dam. Climate input data for this study obtained from the
NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection NEX-GDDP, driven specifically
by the MIROC6 model under the two Representative Concentration Pathway RCP scenarios,
4.5 and 8.5. The QSWAT+ model has been calibrated for the inflows at Khanpur watershed
for the year 2014 at the monthly scale and validated for the two-outs using the SWAT-CUP
(Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Calibration Uncertainty Program). The calibration results
indicated that the simulated inflows of Khanpur dam station are in good agreement with the
computed inflows. R2
and NSE values were computed as 0.83 and 0.80, respectively. While R2
and NSE for 1997 stands at 0.75 and 0.72 and are 0.68 and 0.71 for the year 2002. Projection
from the study indicates that climate change will eventually alter the hydrology of the
watershed drastically. Maximum temperatures between 40.5 and 48.1°C and minimum
between 25.5 and 31.6°C are thus predicted to follow a strong warming trend by 2080 under
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Besides, annual precipitation is projected to increase to 905
mm under RCP 4.5 and 919 mm under RCP 8.5 by 2080 from 837 mm in 2020. These changes
reflect an intensified hydrologic cycle due to increased rainfall. Accordingly, this study
contributes to the UN's SDGs on SDG 6, Clean Water and Sanitation, by proposing an efficient
water management strategy, and SDG 13, Climate Action, through the assessment of impacts
imposed by climate change on the hydrological cycle of the Haro River basin. These will
contribute toward sustainable water resources and climate resilience in the area.