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Item Role of Energy Mix in Industrial Production in Case of Selected Developed and Developing Countries(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Malik Amir AliItem The impact of Government spending on social sector and poverty(UMT, Lahore, 2018-10) Humaira MunirFiscal economists believe that government spending is one of the most reliable sources for economic development. According to the government spending prosperity occur in social sector and it also puts huge impact on education, health care, gross fixed capital formation and influencing the poverty for the better outcomes. The subjective purpose of this research is an inspection to determine government spending impact on social sector as well as on poverty, for this purpose data was collected from year 1985 to year 2017 in a form of time series by using ARDL technique. This research elaborate the relation among variables to reveal that which variable effect or influence most if government spending fluctuate or stays in order. The study also analyses those factors have more influence to reducing poverty in Pakistan (Health and Education or Both). For this purpose least square model is chosen to examine the impact among variables for the authentication of results as well as how each variable influence other. The current study uses four basic variables such as economic, social, health care, education, labor, capital formation and globalization. The macroeconomic factors also contribute positively to the study. The results also conclude the future predictions of government spending for the poverty reduction.Item The Role of Business Competitiveness in Human development(UMT, Lahore, 2018-10) Muhammad Nadeem AfzalThe concept of human development has attracted abundant attentions of the vast majority including the scholars and governors in the last couple of decades. The major concern of this work is to find empirical conclusions on the relationship between the human development and Business Competitiveness in the other words we can say that we are trying to find the holy nexus between the competitiveness and human development. The other independent variables are labor, capital, governance and globalization. Business sophistication, technology readiness and innovation are used as instruments of business competitiveness are our major control variables. In particular we have used the developing countries data to estimate the results which we can be presented to the government so they can improve their human development index ranking. We are having 30 countries in our study while taking the data of these countries between 1993-2017. The results of the proxies show that control variables are having significant and positive impact on the human development as policy makers focusing on these factors can help them to improve the HDI in short period.Item Determinants of Tourism Industry Development(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Rabbia JavedTourism is the one of the main economic engine. According to the World tourism Organization, this industry grow rapidly over the last few years. Even it is the one of leading fastest growing sector. After the oil industry, automotive and chemicals it is becoming the fourth largest source of export revenue. As the SAARC region only contribute one percent in the tourism. The study analyzes that why this region not growing up in the tourism industry. This research analyses the relationship between tourism demand and its determinants in SAARC countries over the period 2002 to 2015. The study uses four basic determinants: Economic, social, environment and politics. We used the feasible generalized least square model to find the how these determinants work in this region. Carbon emission impact insignificantly to the region. Political stability, control of corruption and GDP impact positively and significantly to the tourism demand. The macroeconomic factors also contribute positively to the study. The results also conclude that SAARC region should work together for the promotion of tourismItem The Factors Affecting Trade Deficit in Pakistan A Time series Analysis(UMT, Lahore, 2018-07) Sidra SaeedThis study is conducted to describe the trade deficit in Pakistan. There are seven major macro-economic indicators are used which are trade deficit, price of Pakistan, urbanization, price of world, gross domestic product of Pakistan, Democratic accountability, price of world, gross domestic product of world. It is witnessed that the trade deficit in Pakistan is increasing aggressively over the last three decades. This study is conducted on time series data from 1986 to 2018 with the ARDL bound test. Many studies have proved that trade deficit is one of the major sources for other major macroeconomic problems and issues.Item Dimensions of Globalization and their Role in Income Inequality(UMT, Lahore, 2018-07) Zahida SaleemThe aim of this study is to examine the role of three different dimensions of globalization in observing income inequality in developing countries specially with reference to Pakistan. These dimensions are economic globalization, financial globalization and political globalization. This study utilizes annual time series data for the period 1985 - 2015 for the analysis by using ARDL and ECM testing approach. No doubt globalization has reduced poverty in Pakistan over the past years but it has also created uneven distribution of wealth among the people. Economic globalization creates more income inequality between rich and poor while financial globalization enhances global linkages through cross border capital inflow that attracts foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country which minimizes this gap. However political globalization can be beneficial for multiple tasking in Pakistan. Hence all the dimensions of globalization are beneficial for the country's crisis but financial globalization is more fruitful in both short and long run to reduce the income inequality.Item Impact of Terrorism, Political Stability and Green House Gasses on FDI inflows in Pakistan(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Iqra FaizForeign Direct Investment demonstrated to be a major source of investment for developing countries which helps to fulfill saving-investment gap, generating employment opportunities, transfer of technology, and eventually rising of economic growth of the host countries. This study analyzes the theoretical determinants of FDI for Pakistan. This research is undertaken to study the impact of terrorism, green house gasses and political stability including interest rate or real exchange rate, trade openness on FDI inflow in Pakistan from 1981 to 2015. To examine the relation among these variables in the long run and short run. ARDL co-integration approach is utilized to identify the main theoretical determinants of FDI in Pakistan by using time series analysis. It is concluded from the econometric analysis that terrorism has a negative impact on FDI while trade openness, green house gasses, political stability, interest rate and real exchange rate have a positive impact on FDI. Secondly this study examines the asymmetric effect of terrorism events on the investor confidence using the Asymmetric Effects NARDL model. The result shows that both effects of increasing terrorism and effects of decreasing of terrorism are significant and their coefficient is different this shows that there is asymmetry. So the government must take steps to promote such peaceful environment policies for attracting FDIItem The Impact of Fiscal Reforms and Socioeconomic Conditions on Fiscal Deficit(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Noreen RazzaqThe present study tests the impact of fiscal reforms and institutional related variables in the presence of per capita GDP, official development aid, foreign direct investment and interest rate as control variables on fiscal deficit. The study uses Ng – Perron (2001) unit root test to find out order of integration of the variables whereas, long run co-integrating relation between fiscal deficit and fiscal reforms in the presence of control variables will be found by using ARDL co-integration technique. Later on, long and short run coefficients will be found for the selected ARDL model. In the end, using graphical representation of CUSUM and CUSUM square, the study will diagnose whether mean and variance of error term will remain stable during the selected sample or not? The results of Ng – Perron unit root test disclose mixed order of integration and show that some variables are stationary at level and some are at first difference. Afterwards, the results of co-integration test expose that calculated values of F – statistic of Wald test are found to be larger than the corresponding upper critical bounds in all the four specifications and confirms evidence of long run co-integrating relation between fiscal deficit and fiscal reforms along with some control variables for Pakistan. The results further demonstrate that fiscal reforms and socio economic conditions are significantly decreasing fiscal deficit in long and short run and hence conclude that they are important factors to cut down fiscal deficit in Pakistan. The empirical results also disclose that decrease in interest rate significantly reduces fiscal deficit in Pakistan. Besides this all the findings are robust to all the diagnostics which are used in this study. In the end, the graphical representation of CUSUM and CUSUM square report that mean and variance of error term are stable during the period 1980 to 2015. Therefore, the estimated long and short run coefficients are stable during the selected sample in Pakistan.Item The Impact of Tax Reforms on Government Revenue of Pakistan- Time Series Analysis for Pakistan(UMT, Lahore, 2018-02) Tahira KousarThe main aim of the thesis is to analyze the impact of tax reforms on tax revenue in case of Pakistan. Auto-regressive distributed lagged approach (ARDL) is used for long run and short run estimation. Time series data is taken for the period of 1981 to 2014. The three models Total Tax to GDP, Indirect Tax to GDP and Direct Tax to GDP are formed using explanatory variables, such as tax reforms (total, indirect and indirect), corruption, poverty, economic globalization, urbanization and remittances. In the present study tax reforms is the variable of interest which is incorporated by using incidence of tax reforms index. The index is made by scoring method, all tax reforms from 1981 to 2014 have measured and segregated into direct, indirect and administrative reforms. The empirical findings of thesis show that there is a positive and significant relationship exists between tax revenue and total tax reforms while the opposite relation estimated between indirect and direct taxes and their reforms. Corruption, Poverty and Economic Globalization have negative but significant impact on generating taxes in Pakistan. Urban population and Remittances have insignificant impact on direct taxes.Item Impact of Governance on Poverty and Income Inequality(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Natasha KhanThe thesis attempts to examine the impact of governance on poverty. The data has been taken from World Bank and ICRG covering time period 1984-2015. ARDL approach is utilized in this thesis. CUSUM and CUSUMQ stability tests are employed on the model and the results show that there is a stable relationship between the variables indicating stability of the estimated model. Long run estimated results showed a negative and significant relationship between governance and poverty. On the other hand the variable of interest (governance) entered the equation with an analogous sign and is also significant. Other control variables utilized in the thesis are in line with the theory.