2016

Permanent URI for this collection

https://escholar.umt.edu.pk/handle/123456789/4108

Browse

Browsing 2016 by Title

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime for economic structure of Pakistan (Time Series Analysis for Pakistan)
    (UMT.Lahore, 2016) Faran Ali
    Auto-regressive distributed lagged model (ARDL) is used in present study to find appropriate exchange rate regime for economic structure of Pakistan. For the estimation of model, time series data is used over the period from 1984 to 2012. Our study confirmed that openness, foreign exchange reserves, rate of inflation and financial development are important determinant while choosing appropriate exchange-rate regime for economy having features like Pakistan. On the basis of analysis, we suggest both extreme ends hard peg and free float are unfavorable for it. In addition, study also finds that in case of Pakistan, political institutions are not as important as economic institutions as in our study governance and political stability were found insignificant. Still, lot of attention is required on this topic. Choice of regime is a difficult task in empirical analysis because few factors cannot explain actual regime.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Effectiveness of Socio-Economic Determinants on the Level of Good Governance in Pakistan
    (UMT.Lahore, 2016) Huma Rabbani
    This study investigates the effectiveness of social and economic indicators on the level of good governance in Pakistan. Time series data over the time period of 1984 to 2012 is used and Auto Regressive Distributive Lag ARDL method has been applied to estimate the model. It is found that inflation, GDP and income inequality have negative and significant impact on governance. Unemployment also has negative but insignificant impact on the good governance. While Population is positive and significantly related with the governance. It is recommended that; in order to ensure the good governance there is a dire need to improve the role above mentioned social and economic indicators. Improved governance will also increase the performance of these socio-economic indicators
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Factors Affecting Violent and Non-Violent Crime
    (UMT.Lahore, 2016) Sadia Yasmin
    The aim of this study is to explorethe factors which directly and indirectly affects violent and non-violent crime in Pakistan. Time series data set is taken for the period from 1981 to 2014. ARDL cointegration technique is applied to find long run cointegration between crime and its factors in Pakistan. The selected explanatory variables are household consumption, education, population density, unemployment, urbanization, poverty, investment and inflation. Our analysis provides evidence that inequality is unlikely to be a positive factor in determining property crime rates but does have a positive significant impact on violent crime. Household consumption, inflation and demographic variables found to be most consistent positively significant determinants of both types of crime. Education and investment have found to be more significant factors in reducing both violent and non-violent crimes in Pakistan. The study recommends that government should control the inflation. Moreover, education system should be improved and also provide more employment opportunities through investment in new projects, otherwise violent behaviour may promote due to frustrated educated persons in the country.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORTS IN PAKISTAN
    (UMT.Lahore, 2016-03-16) MALIHA SAEED
    In Economic Development of any economy the role of international trade is very important. It is very viable source for fulfillment of the growing needs of all human beings. All trading countries gain the advantages of international trade. This study empirically investigates the impact of exports finance scheme, world gross domestic product, gross domestic product, real effective exchange rate and industrialization on the performance of exports for the period from 1980 to 2014 in Pakistan. The study uses ADF for checking stationarity of time series data. For estimating the co-integration among the variable we are using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). Long run relationship exists between exports and its factors. According to the empirical results, it is found that world gross domestic product and gross domestic product have positive impact on exports. Whereas, in the long run exports finance scheme and real effective exchange rate are negatively and significantly associated with exports performance in Pakistan.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    The Determinants of Infant Mortality Rate
    (UMT.Lahore, 2016) Muhammad Shahzad Sardar
    The MDGs report, 2015 showed a remarkable progress in reducing the child mortality as it states that child mortality of world has dropped from 90 to 43 deaths per 1000 live births from 1990 to 2015. Despite the declining trends of child mortality in most of the regions of the world, the current situation still requires a lot to do as about 16,000 children under five in a day continue to die in 2015. This thesis is an effort to find out the robust socio economic, demographic, health and environment factors to explain the phenomenon of infant mortality rate for middle income countries by taking the data for 41 countries for 26 years (1990-2015). The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework is used for estimation purpose as GMM is relatively more superior estimation technique as compare to ML, OLS, IV and TSLS. The estimation shows that the fertility rate and infant mortality rate have positive relationship as one percent increase in fertility rate results in increase in infant mortality rate by 0.3866 percent significantly. Life expectancy and infant mortality rate are inversely proportional to each other as one percent increase in life expectancy reduces the IMR by 2.6694 percent significantly. The increased health expenditures as percentage of GDP and GDP per capita also have significant impact in decreasing the infant mortality rate. The Elasticity calculated for health expenditures as percentage of GDP and real GDP per capita explains the infant mortality rate significantly by -0.1571 and -0.5881 respectively. In the post MDGs and pre SDGs scenario, the study has very important implication for planners, policy makers and international donors for having future line of action to achieve the child health related goals in SDGs 2030 agenda.