MS/M.Phil DQM (Economics and Qualitative Management

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Browsing MS/M.Phil DQM (Economics and Qualitative Management by Title

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    A Comparative Study of Spline Models
    (UMT.Lahore, 2020) Fizzah Haq
    Economic problems that faced in a country cause great changes particularly in the economy progression. Also they are influenced by various internal or external situations. Economic or political problems generally cause rapid and sudden increases in inflation and commodity prices. Gold has grown into an alternative investment mode for Pakistani investors. Price rise is defined as inflation, which is the increase in the cost of living as the price of goods and services increases. Inflation rate is the annual year percent change in price level. This report used the wholesale price index (WPI) as an inflation analog. It is commonly used by numerous analysts, states, banks and sectors, because it aims at price movements most comprehensively. The data of gold price and whole sale price index that used in this study was obtained from Census and Statistics Department State Bank of Pakistan from duration of 1960 to 2018, the sampling period consisted of 59 measurements per annum. The aim of this study is to compare two spline models regression spline and penalized spline and also to achieve a precise and accurate estimate for the price of gold. The prediction has been made for Pakistan's bases of inflation rates over the last six decades.Mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluation criteria to test the reliability of both analytical techniques. R-studio 3.5.2 is used for this imperial analysis. Best result hasbeen achieved using the cubic penalized spline according to MSE and MAPEperformance criterions. F-test is used to compare the two spline models and conclude that both techniques are nor statistically significant neither functionally relevant, both models are significantly different. The R^2 significance of the penalized spline model for gold price data is higher than the R^2 of regression spline model.Thus, it is conclude that specially in case of prediction the penalized spline model is a more effective and appropriate statistical method for gold price data and also for such types of economic data in Pakistan.
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    A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FORCASTING MODELS
    (UMT.Lahore, 2017) Zaheer Abbas
    In this thesis, we studied the performance of different statistical models and compare their forecast accuracy. In particular, we used multiple linear regression (MLR), seasonal autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (SARFIMA), and artificial neural network (ANN).
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    A NEW HYBRID EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE CONTROL CHART USING MIXTURE RATIO ESTIMATOR OF MEAN
    (UMT.Lahore, 2020) Hafiz Zain Pervaiz
    The Control charts are the most important tool of Statistical Process Control (SPC) tool kit. It is commonly used to differentiate between the “assignable and un-assignable causes.”The purpose of the effective process monitoring system is to detect the presence of an “assignable cause.” The control charts are of different types. Some are “memory control charts” and other is “memory-less control charts.”Shewhart are memory-less control charts and are being used to detect a large size shift whereas the memory type charts are used for dealing with small size shifts. The use of statistical quality control charts in different fields of life revealed that the most of the control charts are structured to cater information about the quality characteristic/ studied variable. If we are able to acquire some information about some other variable(s) which is correlated with our variable of interest, we can enhance the efficiency of the control chart by the efficient charting statistic. The additional information is known as auxiliary information and the variable providing the additional information is referred as auxiliary variable. This additional/auxiliary information is used at different points in survey sampling to estimate the unknown parameters. Whenever the auxiliary information is used in the parameter estimation process, the precision of the estimating the parameter is improved. In this thesis, we proposed A New Hybrid Exponentially Weighted Moving Average HEWMA control chart. The proposed control chart is based ona mixture ratio estimator of mean using a single auxiliary variable and a single auxiliary attribute (Moeen et al., 2012). We call it as Z- HEWMA control chart.The proposed control chart performance is evaluated using out-of-control-Average Run Length (ARL1). The control limits of the proposed chart is based on estimator, its mean square errors. A simulated data is used to compare the proposed Z-HEWMA, traditional/simple EWMA chart and CUSUM control chart. From this study the fact is revealed that Z-HEWMA control chart shows more efficient results as compared to traditional/simple EWMA and CUSUM control charts.The Z-HEWMA chart can be used for efficient monitoring of the production process in manufacturing industries where auxiliary information about a numerical variable and an attribute is available.
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    A Statistical Study to Explore the Factors Associated with Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C in Punjab
    (UMT.Lahore, 2022) Javeriah Rafiq
    A prevalence study on hepatitis B and C infections was conducted to acquire estimates at the province level in Punjab as well as to examine epidemiological dynamics and underlying risk factors.
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    A Study on Economic determinants Affecting Child Labour
    (UMT.Lahore, 2018-06) Arshad Hameed
    This study provided the main influence factors on child labour by using World Bank data of 112 countries. The strategic way of low and above average of child labour techniques were used to check the more significant behavior of the study child labour. The significance relationship between the child labour and FDI, Per Capita GDP, Inflation, percentage of employee from industrial and Literacy rate. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS statistics version 23 and then analyzed for the significant outcomes. Child Labour and predictors was analyzed by t-test, Leven test, and binary logistic regression to check the significant effect. The relationship GDP per capita, Inflation, Literacy rate has significant relationship with child labour. While the FDI and industrial have insignificant effect. The t-test was used to check the equality between two groups of child labour below average and above Average.
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    A Study on Economic determinants Affecting Child Labour- A Global Prospective
    (UMT.Lahore, 2018-06) Arshad Hameed
    This study provided the main influence factors on child labour by using World Bank data of 112 countries. The strategic way of low and above average of child labour techniques were used to check the more significant behavior of the study child labour. The significance relationship between the child labour and FDI, Per Capita GDP, Inflation, percentage of employee from industrial and Literacy rate. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS statistics version 23 and then analyzed for the significant outcomes. Child Labour and predictors was analyzed by t-test, Leven test, and binary logistic regression to check the significant effect. The relationship GDP per capita, Inflation, Literacy rate has significant relationship with child labour. While the FDI and industrial have insignificant effect. The t-test was used to check the equality between two groups of child labour below average and above Average.
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    Aerosols Variability Over the Central Location in the Indo Gangetic Basin
    (UMT.Lahore, 2021-10-29) Hafiza Farwa Amin
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    Agent Base Simulation Fashion Retail Chain
    (UMT.Lahore, 2017) Azam Saeed
    This research develops a multi-agent simulation model for fashion retail supply chain. Intelligent agents are designed using SQL to performed key roles of supply chain management for fashion retail.
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    Conditional Expected Value (CEV) based Coefficient of Variation (CV) control chart dealing with Type 1 Censored data
    (UMT.Lahore, 2021) ATEEBA ATIR
    In this thesis, we proposed a new Conditional Expected Value (CEV) based Coefficient of Variation (CV) control chart for Type І Censored data under Rayleigh distribution. The control limit is based on quantile point approach. The performance of these charts is evaluated by means of Average Run Length (ARL) measure. The ARL1 measures are calculated for different shift values in scale parameter of the distribution. The control chart with smallest ARL1 are considered as the more efficient chart which detect changes in process deviation more speedily. The graphical representation is made using ARL curves to compare the performance of proposed CEV-CV control chart with a simple CV control chart. A real life data example is also included to view the performance of proposed CEV based CV control chart.
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    CONTRASTIVE STUDY OF BEHAVIOR VIA TWEETS BY FIRST AND SECOND WAVE (COVID-19) ON A NOVEL DATASET
    (UMT.Lahore, 2021) MUHAMMAD WASEEM TARIQ
    Nowadays, recognizing sentiments of the people become a foremost challenge. To address this issue researchers conducts sentiment analysis in different domains. Social channels like twitter provide essential information for emotional analysis. In modern era, researcher perform behavior analysis by means of data sciences. In this thesis, sentiment analysis has been performed on tweets related to COVID-19. Our aim is to analysis two phases of coronavirus, targeted date are 1st April to 30th June for the 1st wave and 20th Oct to 20th Dec for the 2nd wave. The BERT model is utilized to process the data set. The key goal of this study to provided contrastive analysis among both phases. The results shows in comparison to the second, the first wave with elevated tweet frequency and the results reveal that as the time passes negativity increases.
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    EFFECT OF TEACHER’S BEHAVIOR ON EMOTIONAL AND COGNITIVE INTEREST OF STUDENTS LEADING TO CLASS ROOM ENGAGEMENT
    (UMT.Lahore, 2018-08) RABIA TARIQ
    This study examined the significant factors which are effecting on the students engagement into the class room in University of Management and Technology. For this purpose we use two methods of student’s engagement which are cognitive interest and emotional interest. The teacher’s role clarity and teacher’s immediacy are used to measure the two types of student’s engagement. In this study we just focus on the students who taught the Statistics course in UMT in the running semester. So we can say that the study population of this study is the students who taught Statistics subject. The stratified random sampling with proportional allocation was used for selecting the sample. In this study, checked the significant factors those were effecting on the students engagement in class room by using Confirmatory Factor Analysis.
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    Effects of Social Applications on Students Academic Performance in Pakistan
    (UMT, Lahore, 2016) TEHREEM JAWAD
    Social applications is the act of the growing the quantity of the ones business and social contacts by making associations through people frequently through social applications, for example, facebook, likendln, imo, twitter, whatsapp, and viber and so on. The fame of the social applications has quickly expanded in the recent years. Social applications gives numerous sorts of services and advantages to its clients like helping them to attach with new people groups, offers conclusions with like personality individuals on the web. In any case, the principle disadvantage of the chat rooms was that you may not know the individual with whom you are collaborating with. The presentation of profiles on social applications sites permitted individuals to know more information about a person before they interface with them. The purpose of our research is to explore the significant factors which have effect on the student’s academic performance. The study of this research is quantitative in nature. The target populations for this research are the university students of the Lahore. The sampling method which is utilized for this exploration is the stratified random sampling. As indicated by the rule of the hair & Anderson our total sample size for this research is 245. Then STATA has been used to analyze the collected data. Survey results were analyzed using the Multiple Linear regression. The results show that the significant and harmful association between the time spent on the social package and the academic execution. Student’s characteristic, time management, and predictor behavior is the positive impact on the academic execution as the time management enhance the student’s academic performance is also increases.
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    EFFECTS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS ON LIFE EXPECTANCY OF SAARC COUNTRIES
    (UMT.Lahore, 2020) FAIZA SHAHID
    Life Expectancy cites to the how many years a person can await to live. It is extensively worked as an indicator of wide evolution of a state or nation. It has expanded from past ten years in several states of the globe. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is a competitive and topological organization that has been agreed to foster socio-economic growth, peace and security, and collective self-reliance within its member nation. It was formed at 1985 summit. Inceptive members of SAARC include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The objective of the study was to estimate the effects of socio-economic factors on life expectancy of SAARC countries (1996-2018).In this regard, the panel data regression method is being applied. MS-Excel (2013) was used to for data entry and analysis has been done by E-views 9. The panel unit root test explained that all the variables are stationary at first difference. The graphical representation of life expectancy of each country individually showed that there exist the upward trend of life expectancy of SAARC countries from 1996 till 2018. The findings of empirical results by using the panel data analysis showed the positive relationship between life expectancy and all of those explanatory variables except the poverty (working poor at $3.20 a day). The relationship between life expectancy with inflation (% of GDP defaultor) and unemployment rate (% of total labor force) were insignificant at 5% level of significance whereas, gross capital formation (% of GDP), total population (no. of persons), health resources (proxy as no. of hospital beds per 1000 people) and poverty (working poor at $3.20 a day) were significant at 5% significance level. Furthermore, the Hausman test showed that fixed effects model is appropriate for the present research. The present research is restricted to six socio-economic factor that affects the life expectancy of SAARC countries from the period 1996-2018. Researcher may use some other factors that may influence impact on life expectancy of SAARC countries, there is possibility of getting better and broadened results. A more recent time series data may also help to get good and reliable results. This study presents many recommendations in respect to improvement of life expectancy of SAARC countries.
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    ESTIMATION OF THE POPULATION MEAN UNDER RANKED SET SAMPLING
    (UMT.Lahore, 2019-02-22) HUMAIRA LATIF
    In this thesis, exponential ratio and simple type estimators have been suggested for estimating finite population mean, using the information from auxiliary variable, under Ranked set sampling procedure. In chapter 1, the explanation about the ranked set sampling design and its modification with respect to exponential and simple ratio estimator has been given. The effect of ranking errors during ranked set sampling has also been discussed in this chapter. The previous work related to Ranked Set Sampling has been given in proceeding chapter 2 along with the use of auxiliary information in ranked set sampling design. In chapter 3 some existing estimator have been re-produced along with Mean Square Errors. Following the above chapters, the major contribution of this dissertation that leads to the epitome of the entire topic appears from the Chapter 4, three estimators are Proposed to estimate the population mean using different central tendencies of single auxiliary variable. Their Mean Square Error, Percentage Relative Efficiency and Biases are discussed in this chapter. Simulation study based on Monte Carlo technique is conducted in chapter 5. The efficiency comparison of the proposed estimators with the competitor estimators are performed. It has been founded that the proposed estimators are more efficient than competitive estimators under simple random sampling and ranked set sampling design. In chapter 6 theoretical results are supported with the help of three real life populations.
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    Estimators Under Stratified Ranked Set Sampling Using Auxiliary Information
    (UMT.Lahore, 2019-02-22) Rahila Akhtar
    In this thesis, exponential and ratio estimators have been proposed for estimating finite population mean, using the information form auxiliary variable, under stratified ranked set sampling design. In chapter 1, the simple random sampling, ranked set sampling and stratified ranked set sampling designs have been discussed. The types of ranking and modification of ranked set sampling with respect to exponential and ratio estimators have been given. The previous work relating to simple random sampling, ranked Set Sampling and stratified ranked set sampling has been given in chapter 2 along with the use of auxiliary information. Whereas Chapter 3 contains the estimators for the population mean which have been developed in ranked set sampling and simple random sampling. The proposed estimators are discussed in Chapter 4. The bias and mean square error expressions have been derived for the estimators under stratified ranked Set sampling. Simulation study based on Monte Carlo technique is conducted in chapter 5. The efficiency comparison of the proposed estimators with the competitor estimators are performed. It has been founded that the proposed estimators are more efficient than competitive estimators under simple random sampling and ranked set sampling design.