BS ECONOMICS

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Can Pollution Haven Hypothesis Explain Exports
(UMT, Lahore, 2020) Ali Yasir
This paper investigated the effect of pollution haven hypothesis on exports. The pollution haven hypothesis that has been maintaining the industries that is full of pollution intensive i.e so the dirty industries which has been migrate to developing economies. Because in developing countries resources are cheap and labor wages also cheap and they have less strict environmental rules and the regulations and on the other hand, countries with stricter environmental regulations become increasingly costly for organizations because of the expenses related with satisfying these standards. Through this research we found the relationship between dependent and independent variables. And I also using FGLS regression model. This study has select thirty seven developing countries. This study concluded that correlation is having between dependent and independent variables. And there is a relationship between exports and FDI and Co2. This confirms that the polluted industries from developed world tend to move in terms of FDI to developing countries which increases Co2 emissions and exports.
Can Stock Market Development put chains on Inflation: A Panel Cointegration Analysis on SAARC Countries
(UMT, Lahore, 2015) Ibrahim Suleiman
Defense expenditure and its impact on Inflation
(UMT, Lahore, 2017) Syed Sanwal Kaleem
This paper focuses on the impact of defense expenditure on inflation in case of the three neighboring countries namely Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Although defense expenditure is a variable strongly associated with all the three countries, not much studies have been carried out regarding its impact on inflation. The purpose of this study is to find out whether defense expenditure has more impact on inflation with a focus on comparison between the three countries, or does other social economic variables like growth and exchange rate have more impact on inflation. This is found through empirical estimations using ARDL approach as well as Granger Causality Tests. The results show that only in case of Bangladesh, defense expenditure does cause inflation while in case of Pakistan and India, more focus should be done on the social economic variables.
Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2017) Umair Ijaz
The aim of this research is to investigate the determinants that have higher influence on business cycle synchronization and we found out that trade, exchange rate, gross domestic product of other countries that are taken under research and gross domestic product of Pakistan has higher effect on business cycle synchronization. In order to determine the effect of determinants, data of 13 countries have been taken from 2015-2015 and panel data estimation is being used. Further two types of models are being used in panel data, one is fixed effect and other is random effect and Housman test is used to check the best one. It was concluded that GDP of foreign country is directly proportional to business cycle synchronization or we can say that increase in GDP of foreign country will increase BCS. It is also found that GDP of Pakistan is directly proportional to BCS and its effect is higher that GDP of foreign country. Results indicate that trade is also directly proportional to BCS. For exchange rate it has opposite effect and if exchange rate is increased by 1% BCS is decreased by 1.80%. After the results interpretation fixed least square is better than random least square.
Determinants of Fiscal Deficit A Case of Selected Asian Countries
(UMT, Lahore, 2019) Abdul Jawwad
This paper investigated the impact of important economic, political and institutional factors on fiscal deficit, in order to find the relationship between dependent and independent variables, andused FGLS regression analysis. The regression contains the period of 32 years series from 1985 to 2017 for 21 selected Asian countries. This study concludes that there is correlation between dependent and independent variables. Trade openness and government stability have insignificant impact on the fiscal balance, the relationship between trade openness and fiscal balance is found to be negative and also government stability have a negative relationship with the dependent variable. Beside these both variables, poverty, interest rate, polity and democratic accountability have significant impact on the fiscal balance. The relationship between interest rate and fiscal balance is found to be negative. There is a positive relationship between polity and fiscal balance, with an increase in the level of polity causes to increase the fiscal balance for the case of selected Asian countries.
Determinants of Poverty in Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2017) Hamza Waqar Gill
The aim of this study is to access and understand the impact of different variables on poverty in Pakistan. The data used for this purpose is from 1982 to 2015 which shows both positive and negative relationships of all independent variables with poverty in Pakistan. The application of ARDL approach shows that political stability has a negative relationship with poverty whereas education expenditure, investment or FDI and foreign remittances have a positive relationship with poverty. This study also shows that the level of poverty in rural areas is very high as compared to the urban areas because of numerous reasons. The results of this study can be helpful to understand the different dynamics of poverty in the country and for the formation of a policy which can reduce the state of poverty in Pakistan.
Determinants of Poverty, Income Inequality and Unemployment: A Case of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2016) Muhammad Usama Altaf
The paper explores the impact of development expenditure, military expenditure, debt, political stability, foreign direct investment and inflation on poverty, income inequality and unemployment in context of Pakistan. Time series uninterrupted data is used for period 1980 to 2014. Income inequality is a havoc by which income gap increases between rich and poor of society. Capitalism is the main root cause of income inequality as capitalists are taking and snatching the hard work of poor as the critics claim. Pakistan has high unequal distribution of income also because of capitalist system in society. Poverty is a sheer state of adequacy in which people even lack basic necessities. Basic necessities include food, clothing and shelter but according to some modern lists, it includes basic education and healthcare as well. More than quarter of population of Pakistan is living far below the poverty index. Unemployment is an economic havoc in which people do have some specific skill and willingness to work but there is no job opportunities present for them in market. Pakistan has alarming unemployment rate as compare to developed nations. Due to all these havocs discussed here, state of unrest and chaos rise in society damaging all the other sectors and law and order situation as well. Poor health and, depression and brain traumas also increase in such societies. The empirical findings confirm that development expenditure is decreasing poverty and unemployment but increasing inequality due to capitalism. Military expenditure is decreasing inequality and unemployment but has no impact on poverty. Foreign direct investment is decreasing inequality and unemployment. Debt is decreasing poverty and unemployment. Results also show that political stability is increasing poverty and unemployment. Policy makers should consider the current scenario in light of given research.
Dynamics of Solow Residual Technology – A Case of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2017) Fatima Jamil
Technology is usually considered as a determinant of productivity, manufacturing industries are more commonly observed to use technology in order to enhance their level of productivity. This study has tried to capture the impact of technology on its contribution in industrial value addition, environment quality and capacity to create jobs. For this three models are constituted for the case of Pakistan. This study has used Vector Error Correction Model, utilized to estimate long run pattern of changes in technology. The results showed that technology has a positive impact on industrial value addition, it improves the environmental quality by reducing the carbon emissions and it has the potential to create jobs and reduce unemployment in long run.
Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Major Agricultural Crops in Punjab
(UMT, Lahore, 2015) Shukrillo Abdukayumov
The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Major Agricultural Crops in Punjab is analyzed from 1970 to 2010, located in Punjab region of Pakistan. For data requisites used twelve districts of Punjab region. The study used panel data and preferred panel data over time series due to unavailability of data requisites. Temperature minimum deviations, temperature maximum deviations, precipitation deviations, number on tubewells, sale of fertilizers, agricultural prices and population density were used to measure the impact upon productivity of wheat and productivity of cotton. Study found significant impact of temperature maximum deviations, precipitation deviations, population density on wheat productivity in the long run while in short run only temperature maximum deviations has significant impact on wheat productivity. In case of cotton productivity model the study found significant impact of number of tubewells, cotton price, and population density on cotton productivity in the long run and in short run study found significant impact of precipitation on cotton productivity.
Effects of fiscal policy on GDP for the case of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2016) Manal Sharif Bajwa
The Purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the fiscal policy on GDP in Pakistan using time series data for the period 1980-2014. Asymmetry in the fiscal policy will be explained by Direct taxes ,indirect taxes, development expenditures and current expenditures. ARDL model is used for the analysis. The outcome supports two key conclusions. Current expenditures and indirect tax do not have asymmetry in their model while development expenditure and direct tax have asymmetry in their model. So the policy makers can see the increasing and decreasing Direct taxes and development expenditures they can make sure that the effect might not be same and opposite. This study will provide help in determining the importance of fiscal policy for the development of Pakistan.
Evaluating the Impact of Logistics Sector Development on Economic Growth of Pakistan: A Time Series Approach
(UMT, Lahore, 2015) Arslan Arif Uppal
Logistic sector, which is considered as a significant role on countries economic growth and development. Developments in logistic sector facilitate the global trade; increase the competitiveness in countries and its show to be a main determinant of growth and development. Finally, this paper gives the recommendation for the growth of logistics industry and economic growth in Pakistan. This paper used ARDL test method to analyze the relation between GDP growth and logistic sector development in Pakistan .This study indicates many variables in logistic sector, 13 variables are used in factor index to make 4 indexes of transportation (road, sea, air, and rail). Long run results shows that one sector of Pakistan i.e. railways have negative effect to GDP and other sectors like Pakistan road, sea and air have positive effect to GDP the short run results shows that only one sector of Pakistan i.e. air port have positive effect to GDP.This research shows that the development of logistic sector is promoting the economic growth in Pakistan.
Factors Affecting the Public Debt: Time Series Analysis of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2015) Hina Rasool
The modest level, debt recovers benefit and increases growth. A high level debt can be harmful. How does debt move in relation to its determinants will lecture this query using a new dataset that include the budget deficit, debt servicing, real effective exchange rate, and GDP per capita. Currently, Pakistan is suffering from a severe debt-trap. Pakistan has loaned out a bulky amount of debt from the external sources together with large amounts of borrowings from World Bank, IMF and some developed nations are still continued. Whereas, a huge quantity from the established borrowings has been used for repayment of debt and the interest on it. Debt servicing has enlarged the budget deficit that in turn generates the necessity of extra borrowing. The external debt of Pakistan seem to be the reason of all the calamities bothering the budget. Even the IMF and World Bank papers on Pakistan reflect the external debt liability is a main cause of all the troubles in the economy. The aim of the article is some important factor contributing to the nexus of debt in Pakistan from 1976 to 2013. The direct implicate is that countries with high debt must act quickly and decisively to address their fiscal problems. Budget Deficit, Debt servicing and GDP per capita have significant relation with Total Debt and Internal Debt in long run with a positive correlation. Whereas, Real External Debt Stock is reflecting a significant & positive correlation with Budget Deficit, Debt servicing, GDP per capita and Real Effective Exchange Rate except Budget Deficit.
Foreign Direct Investment and its impact on Economic Growth
(UMT, Lahore, 2018) Saad Bin Khalid
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. The study focuses on whether foreign direct investment has a relationship with economic growth or do other variables like remittances, exports and imports have impact on economic growth in case of Pakistan. This is found through empirical estimations using ARDL approach, cointegration test and unit root tests. The period of the study is from 1977 to 2015 on annual basis retrieved from World Bank and IMF. The findings of the study suggested that there is a positive statistically significant relationship between the economic growth and foreign direct investment. Furthermore, remittances also have positive impact on the GDP per capita in the long run and short run.
Globalization and Its Impact On Financial Crimes; A Case of Developing Countries
(UMT, Lahore, 2020) Rabia Muhammad Amjad
Financial crime such as money laundering is defined by FATF as “processing of these criminal proceeds to disguise their illegal origin”. Over the years, globalization has become one of the reason for the pervasiveness of crimes such as money laundering. This has led to disturbance of the global financial system. The main purpose of this research was to see whether globalization has any impact on money laundering. Data set of one-hundred and nineteen developing countries were used from the time period of 1985 till 2015. The model of Panel Quantile Regression was used to estimate results. It was found that globalization has a significant positive impact on crimes such as money laundering. Furthermore, problems such as corruption was also found to have a positive significant effect on money laundering. In order to curb the pervasions of financial crimes such as money laundering, it’s essential for the government to adhere to the rules of FATF and introduce the anti-money laundering policy especially in its financial system.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Labor Market in Developing Countries
(UMT, Lahore, 2024) Momina Humayun
This study investigates the interplay between artificial intelligence (AI), technological adoption, and economic variables, focusing on their implications for unemployment and economic growth. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) methodologies, the study examines macroeconomic data to uncover long-term determinants of unemployment. AI and machine learning (ML) adoption demonstrate a positive association with reduced unemployment, reflecting their potential to generate new job opportunities. Conversely, increased digitization through data science (DS) correlates with decreased unemployment, underscoring the importance of digital skills in modern economies. The key insights of this study shed light on the perspectives to existing literature, revealing complex interactions between AI adoption, economic growth, and labor markets. While supporting traditional economic theories on technological impacts, such as skill-based technological change (SBTC), the findings also challenge some prevailing notions. Overall, this research underscores the multifaceted nature of AI's economic impact, emphasizing the outcomes of the labor market in the developing countries. It further suggests some more avenues for future research by considering dynamics of technological adoption and economic outcomes
Impact of Flow of Investment, terms of Trade and Human Capital on Economic Growth
(UMT, Lahore, 2015) Faiza Kalsoom
Economic growth is an increase in capacity of an economy to produce more goods and service over time that is necessary for the development of an economy. This study attempts to analyze the impact of lack of savings and investments, lack of goods and services and Human capital on economic growth of Pakistan during the period 1980-2013. These variables are regressed on GDP and OLS technique has been used. As in OLS all variables cannot be stationary at first difference so we applied Johansen Co-integration approach to get stationary at first difference and to check relationship among the variables. The results find out that foreign direct investment and human capital are positively related to the economic growth whereas volatility in terms of trade has a negative relationship with the economic growth of Pakistan. Government should focus on these factors to promote economic growth by spending on human capital and infrastructure should be improved to attract FDI.
INCOME SMOOTHING IN SHARIAH COMPLIANT COMPANIES OF PAKISTAN
(UMT, Lahore, 2016) HASSAN SULTAN
Income smoothing refers to the use of accounting techniques to level out net income fluctuations from one period to the next. Companies indulge in these practices by using accounting techniques to level out and decrease uncertainty in their profit and to set out ups and downs in income time to time. By doing this they attract the investors because with more and constant income investors are willing to pay more price for company stock that increase the value of stock. Present study has analyzed the existence of artificial income smoothing in Pakistani Shariah compliant companies and compared their performance in relation with smoothing behavior. In order to investigate the income smoothing companies, the Eckel’s Index model was used, with the sample of 64 companies for the time of 2008-2015. It was found that 34 percent of the companies are non-smoothers and rest of the 66 percent of the companies are smoothers in pooled sample. Among high performing companies, 37.5 percent of the companies are non-smoothers and rests of the 62.5 percent are smoothing companies. In low performing companies, it was found that 31 percent companies are non- smoothing, rest 69 percent companies are practicing income smoothing.
Nexus of Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Case Study of Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2021) Hassan Mehmood
This study's main purpose is to examine the significance of the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in the long-run and short-run for the case of Pakistan. for this 5 purpose, the exchange rate was taken as a dependent variable, and oil prices were taken as an independent variable with other controlled variables including export, remittances, total reserves, and industrial growth. The data used for estimation is collected from the World Development Indicator and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 42 observations have been taken to analyse the nexus of oil prices and exchange rate from 1978 to 2019. The estimations have declared that the nexus between the oil prices and the exchange rate is significant and positive. Increases in the exchange rate will increase the oil prices or increases in oil prices increases the exchange rate, if we want a stable exchange rate or prevent it from increases, then the oil prices must be controlled. Moreover, industrial growth has a positive and significant relationship with the exchange rate in both the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, export has negative and insignificant relation with exchange rate in the short-run in the long-run export have a negative and significant relationship with the exchange rate. Lastly, remittances and total reserves have a positive and significant relationship with the exchange rate in the long-run, in the short-run remittances and total reserves have a positive but insignificant relationship with the exchange rate. In the long-run higher reserves will bring confidence in the market in the time of financial instability with the help of reserves exchange rate can be controlled. Whereas an increase in remittances will increase the economy’s income and the nominal exchange rate is appreciated with the inflow of remittances.
NEXUS OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDANCE FROM SELECTED DEVELOPING ASIAN COUNTRIES
(UMT, Lahore, 2024) Israr Ullah
This thesis delves into the intricate relationship between public expenditures and economic growth across 50 developing Asian countries from 2007 to 2019, employing the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. Against the backdrop of rapid economic transformations and policy interventions in the region during this period, understanding the dynamics of public spending and its impact on economic development is crucial for informed policymaking. By examining a diverse sample of developing Asian nations, this study employs robust econometric techniques to analyze the multifaceted interplay between different categories of public expenditures and their implications for economic growth. Infrastructure development, education, healthcare, and defense spending are among the key areas scrutinized to uncover their respective impacts on economic performance. Utilizing the FGLS method allows for the mitigation of potential issues such as heteroscedasticity and serial correlation, ensuring the reliability of the statistical analyses conducted. The findings of this research contribute significantly to the existing body of knowledge on economic development strategies in Asia, offering nuanced insights into the effectiveness of public expenditure allocations in fostering sustainable and inclusive growth Keywords: Economic growth,
PAKISTAN ECONOMY, DETERMINANTS AND ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS ON CAPITAL MARKETS
(UMT, Lahore, 2021) Aariz Raza Khan
Efficient capital markets inherently contain systematic risk and rapidly reflect real economic changes that ultimately affect the profits of the companies listed on the exchanges and future performance of the companies and usually economic indicators like gross domestic product, inflation, and other crucial factors that are publicly disseminated through state weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual statistical reports that tend to be lagging the stock indices in general, except for few economic indicators that tend to have predictive powers. Moreover, Pakistan being a developing economy has efficiency concerns as well since most developed nations tend to have efficient markets as explained by Fama and French in their EMH theory. For this reason, this dissertation analyzes the relationship among exogenous economic indicators and the endogenous stock returns both in the short and long run. Along with that this paper analyzes efficiency of the markets as well. The first part of the overall analysis is about statistically significant relationships using Pearson’s correlation matrix for all economic and financial variables that indicates that most variables are insignificant when correlated but impact on stock indices is significantly present when regressed with lags, and for this reason a robust non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model has been applied to better understand the relationships between exogenous and endogenous stock indices. The study tests the asymmetry in effects of economic and financial variables on KSE-100 stock index, showing that only CPI, exchange rates and UK stock index have asymmetry effects, while others have symmetry effects. Correlation matrix suggests most variables are insignificant except for oil, exchange rates, 1-year treasury rate and stock indices.

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