2018

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The Impact of Tax Reforms on Government Revenue of Pakistan- Time Series Analysis for Pakistan
(UMT, Lahore, 2018-02) Tahira Kousar
The main aim of the thesis is to analyze the impact of tax reforms on tax revenue in case of Pakistan. Auto-regressive distributed lagged approach (ARDL) is used for long run and short run estimation. Time series data is taken for the period of 1981 to 2014. The three models Total Tax to GDP, Indirect Tax to GDP and Direct Tax to GDP are formed using explanatory variables, such as tax reforms (total, indirect and indirect), corruption, poverty, economic globalization, urbanization and remittances. In the present study tax reforms is the variable of interest which is incorporated by using incidence of tax reforms index. The index is made by scoring method, all tax reforms from 1981 to 2014 have measured and segregated into direct, indirect and administrative reforms. The empirical findings of thesis show that there is a positive and significant relationship exists between tax revenue and total tax reforms while the opposite relation estimated between indirect and direct taxes and their reforms. Corruption, Poverty and Economic Globalization have negative but significant impact on generating taxes in Pakistan. Urban population and Remittances have insignificant impact on direct taxes.