IMPACT OF WEATHER ON COVID-19 IN METROPOLITAN CITIES OF PAKISTAN: A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH
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Date
2020
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Abstract
ABSTRACT
The occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease (SARS-CoV-2 or
COVID-19) in China at the end of 2019 has affected a lot of lives and created a chaos in the world. No
country was safe from its disastrous impact. It also started impacting metropolitan cities of Pakistan and
has spread quickly nationwide in the first quarter of the year 2020. As high temperature reduces some of
the viruses, for example, influenza, likewise it was believed that it would aid in restricting the spread of
Coronavirus (Covid-19) as well. This study is determined to explore the influence of meteorological
factors on the spread of COVID-19 in metropolitan cities (Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar) of
Pakistan and forecast its spread. These cities reported a significant number of cases considering data till
June 3, 2020, when the weather gets hotter than normal days plus the humidity. Variables such as
confirmed cases, fatalities, recoveries, and transmission type is employed for the study. Our results
confirmed that temperature and humidity had not affected the transmission of the virus in these cities. A
forecast was also produced using Facebook's Prophet Library to predict a trend in the coming days. The
points predicted we are out with an average of 8.37% for the whole country from the actual value. Thus,
considering the results obtained, policies announced by the government should be followed to prevent the
rapid increase of the outbreak, the possible pressure on the health system.