Flood Impact Evaluation:
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Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
UMT Lahore
Abstract
One of the most common and possibly very harmful natural disasters is flooding, nationwide. This
thesis deals with the city of Sialkot, Pakistan—a city prone to flooding because of its geographical
and environmental profile. It being adjacent to major rivers and having flat topography, its
vulnerability gets enhanced with deforestation and a poor drainage system. The history of the city
was marked by flash flooding, especially in 2014, 2017, and 2022, which brought along massive
residential damage and economic losses.
The thesis primarily describes the history of flooding in Sialkot from 1965 to 2022. The duration
indicates frequent and high-magnitude floods, with remarkable events shown in 1992 and 2014
with peak flows of 845,090 and 861,464 cubic meters per second, respectively. These extreme
events caused considerable damage and displacements, thus indicating that the city is at a high risk
of floods. This research is structured around four main objectives:
• Environment Impact Assessment: By using the software of ArcGIS, flood-prone areas are
researched to find out the economic impact of river floods in Sialkot. It also evaluates the
damage done to businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture to analyze the actual costs of
such events.
• Data Collection: Through structured questionnaires, we gather information from relevant
departments on various aspects of the floods, such as vegetation index, agricultural yield,
infrastructure damage, evacuation plans, and flood recurrence. This comprehensive data
collection helps gauge residents' vulnerability and preparedness.
• Mitigation Strategies: These include drainage system improvement, flood wall
construction, and raising awareness among the people on the risks from floods and how to
be prepared.
• Comparative Analysis: By reviewing existing studies and reports on flood vulnerability,
we identify common factors that make cities prone to flooding. This comparative analysis
helps determine whether similar factors apply to Sialkot and informs our mitigation
strategies.
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All these objectives are achieved through different means. ArcGIS software is used to analyze
changes in flood patterns both spatially and temporally. Satellite images are used to display the
overview of damage caused by the flood. Structured interviews are also carried out with the
affected population to understand their experiences. Government institution data is gathered and
analyzed in order to come up with detailed maps and models indicating the risk of future flooding.
Probably the two important rivers with high discharge capacity that control the flood dynamics in
the region of Sialkot are the Chenab and Tawi. Their peak flow revealed Non-Maximum Envelope
Curve values in 2014, thus showing reasonable changeability in discharge. Other than these, there
are other water courses, including the UCC and MR Link Canals, and the Aik and Bhed Nullahs,
which form part of the hydrology of the region and add to its flood risk. Although all possible
efforts were made to complete a flood hazard assessment, the research study was hampered by
more fundamental unavailability of critical data with respect to an estimation of the number of
people affected. The unavailability of such information, due to negligence on the part of relevant
departments, slightly constrains our evaluation of the flood risk and the mitigation plan. This
clearly places the urgent need for improving data collection and management practices among
these flood management agencies to either increase depth or accuracy in future studies.
This thesis concludes with an in-depth look into the flood impacts in Sialkot, Pakistan, pointing
out the vulnerabilities and proposing actionable strategies for mitigation of recurrent flood risks in
this very city. The findings present an overview of data collection and proactive mitigation
measures that can be initiated for safeguarding Sialkot's people and infrastructure from the
dangerous impacts of floods.