Measuring the peace dividend: evidence from developing economies

Abstract

The paper attempts to trace the nexus between defense spending and economic growth in developing countries, using data for 59 developing countries from 1972–2000. The purpose is to measure the opportunity costs of defense spending mainly in terms of alternative public programs. The correlation of social sector expenditures with growth rate as well as the extent of correlation between social and defense sector spending is not clear in the majority of developing countries. It follows that even if defense spending is reduced, the prospects for a peace dividend in the aftermath of the Cold War might be inhibited by political interests that oppose increases in social sector expenditures. If so, defense cutbacks might not lead to a welfare windfall as is generally presumed. Accordingly, this paper tests whether a defense spending cutback will enhance funding for other public programs and whether such a reallocation of resources will prove to be beneficial for the long-term growth rate of the economy.